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Orange County: How to Buy a Home When New Housing May Be Planned Next Door (November 2026)

By Dr. Hamid Rowshan, Choice of America

How to buy an Orange County home when new housing may be planned nearby: read the housing element, check zoning and projects, ask the city, then negotiate.

Every Orange County city is under a state order to plan room for more homes, and this week's election showed how much that matters to people who already live here, or want to. If you're shopping for a house or condo, the empty lot, aging strip mall or office park down the street may already be zoned for apartments. Here is what's in the news:

  • Newport Beach voters reject Measure H in early returns. Voice of OC reported on November 4, 2026 that, as of 1:36 a.m. Wednesday, 67.36% of voters had voted no on Measure H (18,201 no, 8,821 yes, of 27,022 votes counted). The measure, primarily financed by local developer Ken Picerne, would have cut the city's housing plan to 2,900 units. A no vote keeps the current plan, which calls for 4,845 units: 1,456 very low-income, 930 low-income, 1,050 moderate-income and 1,409 above moderate-income. Opponents, including councilmembers Noah Blom, Michelle Barto and Sara Weber, warned the measure could get the plan rejected and bring state penalties. Supporters said it would prevent overdevelopment and traffic. These are early, unofficial counts.
  • Huntington Beach could keep paying. The Orange County Tribune reported on November 2 that the state housing department rejected Huntington Beach's housing plan because the city had not actually changed its zoning, and that a San Diego Superior Court judge ruled the city could face $160,000 in penalties plus $50,000 more each month until the changes are made.
  • Costa Mesa approves 2,300 homes while the state sues. HousingWire reported on September 25 that the Costa Mesa City Council approved up to 2,300 units, 920 of them for low- and very low-income residents, on a 110-acre state-owned site that was once a state-run care facility. City staff had said the site could hold up to 4,000 units. The state sued Costa Mesa in July over its housing plan; the city must plan for 11,760 homes between 2021 and 2029.

None of this means a tower is coming to every block. It means that when you buy in Orange County, what's planned near you is now part of the home you're buying. Below is how to find out, and how to price it in, step by step.

The market snapshot (September 2026, Realtor.com)

Realtor.com's October 2026 county figures had not been released as of November 4, so September 2026 is the latest month.

Measure (Orange County)September 2026Change vs. Sep 2025
Median listing price$1,287,500−6.5%
Active listings4,735+3.9%
New listings2,114+1.2%
Median days on market53−6.2%
Price-cut share (Realtor.com price_reduced_share)21.1%+3.7 points
Pending listings1,655−18.4%
Median listing price per square foot$704−2.8%

Source: Realtor.com Residential Data, county inventory core metrics, September 2026 (also published by FRED). The price-cut share is Realtor.com's own price_reduced_share.

More homes are for sale than a year ago, fewer are going under contract, and more than one listing in five had a price cut in September. That gives you time to do the homework below before you commit, and room to negotiate if you find a large project planned nearby.

The cities in the news: a ZIP-code look

ZIP (city)Median listing priceChange vs. Sep 2025Active listingsMedian days on marketPrice-cut share
92647 (Huntington Beach)$1,224,500−4.7%376627.2%
92627 (Costa Mesa)$1,425,000−19.2%704714.7%
92626 (Costa Mesa)$1,572,444−7.1%454822.2%
92649 (Huntington Beach)$1,577,000−7.8%875616.8%
92648 (Huntington Beach)$1,680,750−3.2%975721.1%
92660 (Newport Beach)$4,483,500+3.1%1166116.6%
92663 (Newport Beach)$4,500,000+5.9%678722.7%

Source: Realtor.com Residential Data, ZIP inventory core metrics, September 2026. Price-cut shares are Realtor.com's own price_reduced_share. ZIP figures are based on small numbers of listings and swing a lot from month to month; a median listing price is an asking price, not a sale price, and it reflects the mix of homes on the market that month.

How housing plans work, explained

The state hands out a number. Every eight years, California assigns each city a share of the homes the region needs, split by income level. This is called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation, or RHNA. The current cycle in Southern California runs from 2021 to 2029.

The city writes a housing element. The housing element is the part of a city's general plan that shows where those homes could go. It includes a "sites inventory," a list and map of specific parcels the city says could hold new housing. Planning for homes is not the same as building them: a site on the list may never be redeveloped. But being on the list makes it much more likely.

The city has to actually rezone. A plan on paper is not enough. The state housing department, HCD, found that Costa Mesa's plan met the statutory requirements but could not be found in compliance until the city completed its rezones; the Huntington Beach dispute turned on the same step. Once rezoning is done, a property owner can often build to the new density with less review than before.

Missing the deadline has teeth. Under SB 1037, which took effect January 1, 2025, a court must impose penalties of at least $10,000 and up to $50,000 a month on a city found to have violated housing element law in a case brought by the Attorney General or HCD. Separately, the Attorney General's office explains that a city without a compliant plan is exposed to the "builder's remedy," under which it generally may not deny certain projects with enough low- or moderate-income units just because they don't match local zoning.

What that means for a buyer. In a compliant city, you can usually look up where new housing is planned. In a city that isn't compliant, projects can come forward on sites that aren't on any city list. Either way, it pays to check before you sign.

A Newport Beach example. Newport Beach's housing element names six focus areas for new housing: Airport Area Environs, West Newport Mesa, Dover-Westcliff, Newport Center, Coyote Canyon and Banning Ranch. Its sites analysis assumes an average of 50 units per acre in most of them (60 in Coyote Canyon), and the city uses Housing Opportunity overlay zones to carry that out. In 2024 the Orange County Airport Land Use Commission found the city's housing plan inconsistent with the John Wayne Airport land use plan, and the City Council voted to override that finding. If you're buying near the airport, that history tells you both that new homes are planned there and that airport noise and safety rules are part of the conversation.

The payment math at 7.24%

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% for the week of October 29, 2026. Here is principal and interest with 20% down, plus a property tax estimate at California's 1% base levy only. Your actual bill will be higher once voter-approved bonds, assessments and any Mello-Roos are added.

Home price (Sep 2026 median listing)Down payment (20%)LoanPrincipal and interest1% base tax per monthTotalIncome at a 36% debt ratio*
Orange County, $1,287,500$257,500$1,030,000$7,019$1,073$8,092$269,745
92647 Huntington Beach, $1,224,500$244,900$979,600$6,676$1,020$7,696$256,546
92627 Costa Mesa, $1,425,000$285,000$1,140,000$7,769$1,188$8,957$298,553
92626 Costa Mesa, $1,572,444$314,489$1,257,955$8,573$1,310$9,883$329,444
92648 Huntington Beach, $1,680,750$336,150$1,344,600$9,163$1,401$10,564$352,135
92660 Newport Beach, $4,483,500$896,700$3,586,800$24,444$3,736$28,180$939,341

*Annual income at which the payment and tax shown equal 36% of gross income, with no other debts, insurance or HOA dues. Lenders' limits vary by loan program. Loans above the 2026 conforming limit are jumbo loans with their own rates and rules.

What a price cut is worth. At 7.24% with 20% down, every $10,000 off the price cuts about $55 a month from principal and interest. On the county median, 3% off ($1,248,875) saves about $211 a month, and 5% off ($1,223,125) saves about $351 a month.

What the rate is worth. On the same $1,030,000 loan, principal and interest is $6,335 at 6.24%, $6,674 at 6.74%, $7,019 at 7.24% and $7,372 at 7.74%. A seller credit used for a rate buydown can be worth more to you than the same dollars off the price; ask your lender to price both.

How to buy a home when new housing may be planned nearby: step by step

Step 1: Decide what you're actually worried about. Write it down before you look: traffic on your street, school crowding, parking, views, construction noise, or none of these. Some buyers want new shops, transit and neighbors nearby. Knowing your answer keeps the research focused.

Step 2: Find the city's housing element and sites inventory. Search the city's website for "housing element" and "sites inventory" or "adequate sites." Most cities publish a map. Look for every parcel within a few blocks of the home and note how many units each one is assumed to hold.

Step 3: Check the zoning map, not just the plan. Look up the home's parcel and its neighbors on the city's zoning map. Look for overlay zones with names like "Housing Opportunity," "mixed use" or "residential incentive." A rezoned site can often be built to the new density with less discretionary review.

Step 4: Check whether the city is in compliance. HCD publishes a housing element review and compliance report showing each city's status. If the city is out of compliance, ask the planning counter whether any builder's remedy applications have been filed nearby.

Step 5: Search active and pending projects. Look for the city's "current projects," "development activity" or planning commission agenda pages, and search the street names around the home. Read the staff reports for any project near you: unit count, height, parking, construction timeline and traffic study.

Step 6: Call the planning department. Planners at the public counter answer questions like "Is anything proposed on the lot behind 123 Main Street?" every day. Ask about pending applications, upcoming hearings, and whether the street is planned for widening or new signals.

Step 7: Ask the seller in writing. In your request for information, ask whether the seller has received any notices of public hearings, development applications, or environmental reviews for nearby properties. California generally requires mailed notice to property owners within 300 feet of a project for many land use hearings, so a seller may have the paperwork in a drawer.

Step 8: Look at the airport, freeway and flight paths too. Near John Wayne Airport, check the airport land use plan and noise contours. New housing near the airport can bring its own rules, and the airport itself is the bigger day-to-day factor for many buyers.

Step 9: Visit at the hours that matter. Drive the street at 7:30 a.m., at school pickup, and on a Saturday. If a large project is planned, imagine that traffic plus construction trucks for a year or two.

Step 10: Price it in and negotiate. If a big project is planned close by and it matters to you, use it. With 21.1% of county listings showing a price cut in September and pendings down 18.4% from a year ago, sellers have reasons to listen. Ask for a lower price or a credit toward a rate buydown, and run both with your lender.

Step 11: Use your contingency period. Keep your investigation contingency long enough to read staff reports and talk to the city. If you learn something that changes your mind, you'll want the right to cancel under the contract's terms.

Step 12: Think about resale, not just your first year. New homes, shops and transit can make a neighborhood more convenient, and they can also bring more traffic. Ask your agent to compare sale prices near past large projects in the same city. Plan for how a future buyer will see the change.

Mistakes to avoid

  • Assuming an empty lot or strip center will stay that way.
  • Reading the general plan but not the zoning map, or the reverse.
  • Relying on a city council vote or ballot measure result before it's certified and before the state weighs in.
  • Waiving the investigation contingency in a market where you have time to do it.
  • Treating "planned" as "approved," or "approved" as "built." Check each stage.
  • Forgetting that a non-compliant city can see projects on sites that aren't on its own list.

Quick checklist

  • Housing element sites inventory map checked for the blocks around the home
  • Zoning map and overlay zones checked for the parcel and its neighbors
  • City compliance status checked on HCD's report
  • Planning commission agendas and current projects searched by street name
  • Planning counter called about pending applications and street plans
  • Seller asked in writing about hearing notices and nearby applications
  • Airport, freeway and noise maps checked where relevant
  • Visits made at rush hour, school pickup and on a weekend
  • Price, credit and rate buydown options run with your lender
  • Contingency period long enough to finish all of the above

What this means day to day

For an Orange County family, new housing nearby can mean a coffee shop and a grocery within walking distance, a grown child who can afford to rent in town, or a busier left turn onto the main road every morning. It can mean a year of construction noise, then quieter years after. None of it is automatically good or bad. What matters is knowing before you buy, so the house you pick still fits your life five years from now.

If you're thinking about buying in Orange County and want to know what's planned around a home before you make an offer, call Choice of America at 833-THIS-BROKER (833-842-7465), visit https://choiceofamerica.com/, or see our Orange County page at https://choiceofamerica.com/orange-county-real-estate.html. We'll help you check the city's plans, ask the right questions, and run the full monthly cost on any home you're considering.

Dr. Hamid Rowshan, Choice of America. DRE #02004794, company DRE #02240008.

This article is general information, not legal, planning, tax or lending advice. Housing plans, zoning and election results change; confirm with the city, HCD, your lender and licensed professionals before you buy. Measure H figures are early, unofficial election-night counts. Figures are from the sources below as of the dates shown.

Sources:

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Dr. Hamid Rowshan · DRE #02004794 · Company DRE #02240008 · Orange, LA, Riverside, San Bernardino & San Diego counties.

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