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Orange County: at 7.40%, buying the median-priced home costs about 2.9 times the typical rent

By Dr. Hamid Rowshan, Choice of America

In Orange County, asking prices are lower than a year ago, but the monthly payment on a median-priced home now runs well above the typical rent.

Orange County asking prices are lower than a year ago, but mortgage rates have widened the gap between renting and owning. Realtor.com's September 2026 data put the county's median listing price at $1,287,500 (FRED MEDLISPRI6059), down about $90,000, or 6.5%, from $1,377,500 in September 2025, and down from this year's high of $1,399,000 in March. Over the same year, Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.30% in the week of October 9, 2025, to 7.40% in the weeks of October 8 and October 15, 2026 (FRED MORTGAGE30US), the highest weekly average since November 2023. It was 6.71% at the start of September and as low as 5.98% in late February. Freddie Mac confirmed on October 15 that the weekly average held steady at 7.40%; the next reading is due October 22.

Here is what that does to a payment. As an illustration, a buyer putting 20% down on today's median, or about $257,500, would borrow about $1,030,000. At 7.40%, principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan comes to about $7,132 a month. A year ago, 20% down on the $1,377,500 median at 6.30% would have meant a loan of about $1,102,000 and a payment of about $6,821. So the median asking price is about $90,000 lower, but principal and interest is about $310 a month higher. At February's 5.98%, today's median would have cost about $6,162 a month, roughly $970 less than now. All of these figures leave out property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, and any Mello-Roos assessments that are common in newer communities.

Set that against what Orange County households earn and pay to rent. The U.S. Census Bureau's QuickFacts puts the county's median household income at $116,289 (2020-2024 American Community Survey, in 2024 dollars), or about $9,691 a month before taxes. Principal and interest alone on the example loan would take about 74% of that. To keep principal and interest at 30% of gross income, a common affordability benchmark, a household would need about $285,000 a year, roughly 2.5 times the county median, and that is before taxes and insurance are added. QuickFacts puts median gross rent, which includes utilities, at $2,434 a month. The example payment of $7,132 is about 2.9 times that rent, a gap of about $4,698 a month. Existing owners are in a different position: the median homeowner with a mortgage pays $3,385 a month in total owner costs, which include the mortgage, taxes, insurance, and utilities, and 56.4% of the county's homes are owner-occupied.

The market itself is slower than San Diego County but still moves faster than the Inland Empire. There were 4,735 active listings in September (FRED ACTLISCOU6059), up about 3.9% from a year earlier, and 2,114 new listings came on (FRED NEWLISCOU6059), essentially unchanged from September 2025. Pending listings, homes with an accepted offer that had not yet closed, fell to 1,655 (FRED PENLISCOU6059) from 2,027 a year earlier, or about 35 homes in escrow for every 100 for sale. The median listing spent 53 days on the market (FRED MEDDAYONMAR6059), quicker than Los Angeles (56), Riverside (62), and San Bernardino (65), but slower than San Diego (46), and quicker than the 57 days of September 2025. Realtor.com reports that 21.1% of Orange County listings had a price reduction in September, up from 19.8% in August and 17.4% a year ago, while 0.8% had a price increase. That was the highest price-cut share among the five Southern California counties Choice of America serves, ahead of San Diego at 20.4%, San Bernardino at 18.1%, Riverside at 17.0%, and Los Angeles at 15.8%. The median listing had 1,795 square feet, and the median asking price was $704 per square foot (FRED MEDLISPRIPERSQUFEE6059), down from $724 a year earlier.

What this means day to day: from Anaheim, Fullerton, Buena Park, Placentia, Yorba Linda, and Brea to Santa Ana, Orange, Tustin, Garden Grove, Westminster, and Fountain Valley, and from Irvine, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Laguna Hills, and Aliso Viejo to Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Laguna Beach, San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano, a lower sticker price can still hide a higher monthly cost. A Wire Associates September 2026 Southern California market report, based on CRMLS closed-sale data and Altos Research active-listing figures and summarized by SouthBayRE, found a record share of Orange County condo listings carrying a price cut as of early October, even as September single-family median sales prices still rose year over year in the county (https://southbayre.com/news/socal-september-2026-record-condo-price-cuts.html). Buyers should get a fresh pre-approval at today's rate rather than relying on one from the summer, and compare the full monthly cost of owning with their rent, including property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and Mello-Roos. With about one listing in five showing a price cut and homes taking about seven and a half weeks to sell, buyers can ask for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown, which can lower the monthly payment more than a small price cut. The county's mean travel time to work is 26.7 minutes, so test the drive at rush hour on the 5, the 405, the 55, the 57, the 91, the 22, or the 73 before you commit. Sellers should price close to recent comparable sales from the first day and have recent insurance and disclosure information ready, because buyers are measuring every listing against their rent and their full monthly budget.

At Choice of America, we help buyers, sellers, and renters across Orange County compare payments, neighborhoods, and trade-offs city by city. Visit our Orange County page for local guidance, or call or text us to talk through your plans.

Choice of America · Orange County real estate

Dr. Hamid Rowshan, DRE #02004794, company DRE #02240008. Choice of America, serving Orange, Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. Call or text 833-THIS-BROKER, (833) 842-7465.

Payment figures are an illustration based on the median asking price, a 20% down payment, and Freddie Mac's average rates, principal and interest only; they are not a loan quote. Census income, owner-cost, and rent figures are 2020-2024 five-year averages and are not directly comparable to current listing data; the comparison is for context only.

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Dr. Hamid Rowshan · DRE #02004794 · Company DRE #02240008 · Orange, LA, Riverside, San Bernardino & San Diego counties.

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